Congressional failures could mean lack of more competitive districts in the Minnesota House of Representatives

Not long ago, in any election year in Minnesota, up to four of eight congressional districts were considered competitive races. After the 2024 elections, this number could drop to zero.

All eight districts were won by double-digit margins ranging from 14 to 49 percentage points.

“Angie Craig’s victory in the Second District was a resounding victory that will likely deter serious challengers and ensure she has a long career in the House of Representatives,” says Carleton College political scientist Stephen Scheer of Democrat Angie Craig, who won her third re-election bid from her. the largest margin since first winning the seat in 2018. She won 56% to 42% over Republican Joe Tairab after winning her previous races by five, two and five. points.

Craig won by 14 points, although the Cook Political Report referred to “Minnesota 2.”^nd The district has only a +1 for Democrats on the “Party Voting Index.” In 2024, she surpassed Kamala Harris, who won the district this year 52% to 46% over President-elect Donald Trump.

2^nd The district, which covers parts of the southeast metro and southern Minnesota, is the only one in Minnesota considered “competitive” by the Cook Political Report. “When you look at the state of Minnesota today, we are a very divided state,” Shear says. “Conservative areas are largely Republican. Liberal regions are largely democratic. So we have four or four House delegations and non-competitive districts.”

Republicans control four congressional seats located mostly in rural and suburban areas. Democrats control four districts in urban and suburban areas.

The margin of victory for Minnesota incumbents was astounding, with Republican Brad Finstad at +18 in the first round.^st. District; Craig +14 in two^nd; Democrat Betty McCollum +34 in four^th; Democrat Ilhan Omar +49 in top five^th; Republican Tom Emmer +26 in top six^th; Republican Michelle Fischbach +41 in seven^th and Republican Pete Stauber +16 in the top eight.^th. Democrat Kelly Morrison won the open seat in the third round of voting.^district District by 17 points.

The current members of the House of Representatives range in age from 42 to 70, and none of them appear to be leaving anytime soon.

“What you’re looking for is long careers for members of the U.S. House of Representatives because they’re not that old, they have very secure districts, and they essentially can probably stay in the U.S. House of Representatives as long as they want.” , says Shear.

As recently as 2018, Minnesota had four competitive congressional races. Third-party spending on these races totaled $46 million in 2018. In 2024, the total dropped to $3.3 million.

Minnesota is not alone in this uncompetitive climate. In that year’s Cook Political Report, only 42 of 435 congressional elections nationwide were described as “toss-ups” or “leaning” to one party or another. The rest were considered likely or firmly on the side of one of the two parties.